Wind lulls in the first half of 2024
27 July 2024
Wind Lulls in the first half of 2024
The Electricity System Operator for Great Britain (ESO) publishes its Future Energy Scenarios (FES) every year. The latest, FES 2023, show a significant increase in both installed wind turbine capacity connected to the National Grid from 20.7GW in 2022 to 119.4GW in 2050. But FES2023 acknowledges a problem it calls “Dunkelflaute”. This refers to a period when there is little or no wind – a wind lull.
The table below shows the periods when wind contributed less than 10% of grid demand in the first half of 2024 and confirms that “Dunkelflaute” has a significant effect on the contribution of wind to demand.
Wind lulls in the first half of 2024
| Month |
Total Hours <10% |
No. of Lulls |
No. of Lulls >5 hours |
No. of Lulls >10 hours |
Maximum Lull (hours) |
| 2024 |
|
|
|
|
|
| January |
22 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
7 |
| February |
92 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
38 |
| March |
90.5 |
11 |
7 |
2 |
29 |
| April |
57.5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
23.5 |
| May |
264 |
12 |
8 |
6 |
93 |
| June |
98.5 |
10 |
6 |
4 |
31.5 |
| TOTAL |
625.5 |
48 |
31 |
17 |
|
| Cf 2023 |
617 |
69 |
40 |
21 |
55.5 |
| |
The table confirms not only that low wind speeds occur, but that they are frequent and often extended. It also indicates overall that weather patterns have remained the same as the previous year.
Of particular concern is the extended wind lull of 93 hours, almost 4 days, experienced in May. The shortfall was met by gas and interconnectors but by 2050 there will be no gas and how reliant should we be on interconnectors?
FES2023, in its scenario “Leading the Way” not only predicts that wind generation capacity will increase by 6x by 2050 but that this will represent over 80% of the generating capacity connected to the National Grid. (There is a significant increase in imports via interconnectors and an increase in storage predicted but these are not generating capacity.)
Obviously a reliance on a strategy where wind represents 80% of generating capacity is not sound and having recognised that wind lulls exist, the National Grid should revisit their strategy.