Wind lulls in the first half of 2022 compared with 2021 and 2020.
12 July 2022
Wind Lulls in the first half of 2022
Another of our news articles on extended wind lulls details wind lulls in 2021 and their relevance to the National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios, FES 2021.
Taking a wind lull as when wind is supplying less than 5% of demand, one would expect a decrease in wind lulls as installed capacity increases. The table below compares the first half of 2022 with previous years.
Comparison of wind lulls in the first half of 2020, 2021 and 2022
| Month |
Total Hours <5% |
No of Lulls |
No of Lulls >5 hours |
No of Lulls >10 hours |
Maximum Lull (hours) |
| 2022 |
|
|
|
|
|
| January |
28 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
16.5 |
| February |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| March |
139.5 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
58 |
| April |
66 |
10 |
4 |
2 |
30 |
| May |
73 |
9 |
4 |
2 |
28.5 |
| June |
93.5 |
8 |
6 |
3 |
40 |
| 2022 |
400 |
38 |
21 |
11 |
|
| |
| 2021 |
|
|
|
|
|
| January |
15 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
5 |
| February |
34 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
34 |
| March |
110 |
9 |
7 |
4 |
43.5 |
| April |
156 |
13 |
7 |
4 |
53.5 |
| May |
177 |
17 |
8 |
4 |
67 |
| June |
89 |
9 |
6 |
3 |
30.5 |
| 2021 |
581 |
54 |
30 |
16 |
|
| |
| 2020 |
|
|
|
|
|
| January |
32.5 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
12.5 |
| February |
12 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
12 |
| March |
39 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
21 |
| April |
70 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
22 |
| May |
124 |
12 |
7 |
4 |
32.5 |
| June |
137.5 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
88.5 |
| 2020 |
415 |
34 |
22 |
14 |
|
Despite a significant increase in installed wind turbine capacity in the UK between 2020 and 2022, it can be seen that in every aspect of the analysis there is very little change in wind lulls between 2022 and 2020. (Excluding solar which is mainly locally generated and used, wind currently accounts for almost 30% of installed generation capacity connected to the grid.)
What is noticeable about the data is the variability of wind contribution. For example the longest wind lull in 2020 was in June and was 88.5 hours. In 2021 the longest lull of 67 hours occurred in May. In 2022 the longest lull was in one of the winter months, March, and extended to 58 Hours.
The table confirms that low wind speeds are not unusual, in fact they are frequent and often extended. Assuming weather patterns remain the same in future years, it can also be assumed that wind lulls will not significantly decrease as the capacity of operational wind turbines is increased.
It is clear that the FES 2021 strategy of increasing wind capacity, 6x that in 2020 by 2050, whilst reducing nuclear capacity and eliminating gas is not a sound strategy and it is suggested that the National Grid should look to other, more reliable, sources of renewable energy rather than pursue the rush to wind.