CCGT Gas is the main controllable resource that enables variation of supply to match demand.
Although generation from CCGT Gas is due to end as soon as 2037, there is no plausible evidence that this can be achieved.
Between FES 2019 and FES 2020 the National Grid significantly increased its Five Year Forecast for generation using CCGT Gas.
Although this led to a more relastic forecast for 2020 - which would otherwise have been an underestimate by about 45% - its eventual relative accuracy was greatly helped by the reduction in demand in 2020 due to COVID-19 and its consequential lockdowns.
It seems unlikely that the forecast for 2021 will be achieved, although lockdowns have continued. In early March 2021 generation using CCGT Gas was already significantly ahead of the equivalent figure for 2020.
With coal forecast to have been eliminated by 2025, it is just not possible to see how the intermittency of wind power can be compensated for without much higher generation by CCGT Gas than is currently forecast.
It seems much more likely that the National Grid will need to increase its forecast for CCGT Gas yet again.
Last updated March 2021